Chamblee54

Statistical Belief

Posted in Uncategorized by chamblee54 on August 5, 2010







In a recent survey, 78.7% percent of the respondents agree with the statement “Statistics can be trusted to give an accurate description of the facts”.

Statistics are a part of modern life. Numbers tell us who is expected to win, who is expected to lose, and how many men wear a tie. Statistics are often misleading, or an outright lie. And yet, people believe statistics. ( The middle three letters of believe are lie).

Talk about statistics is little better. Mark Twain gets the credit/blame for popularizing the phrase, “lies, damn lies, and statistics”. According to Wikipedia , Mr. Clemens may have been mistaken.
“Twain popularized the saying in “Chapters from My Autobiography”, published in the North American Review in 1906. “Figures often beguile me,” he wrote, “particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: ‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'”…”The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the 19th Century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli (1804–1881): “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli’s works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death.”
Mr. Twain was in the twilight of his career, and angry at aggressive militarism. Why would he would give credit/blame for a phrase to a conservative Prime Minister of England, dead twenty five years? Why would Cream title a popular LP “Disraeli Gears”?

When PG took English101, the teacher was an inspiring lady named Ann Peets. Between stories of Faulkner and comma splices, she contributed this gem.
” The best way to win an argument is to use statistics. The best way to use statistics is to make them up. ”
In 1954, a bestselling book came out, “How to Lie with Statistics”. The premise was that the pros knew the tricks, and the public has a right to self defense. There are numerous examples of the ways that you can lie with numbers just like you lie with words. Calculator lips don’t move.

One word to watch out for is average . The three most popular types are mean, median, and mode. Mean is the one most people think of as average…you add all the figures up, and divide by the number of entries. In median, you line up the entries in numeric value, and choose the entry in the middle. In mode, the number that the most entries identify with is the average. Any one of these three can be called average, and yet none might describe the typical entry.

HT to Millard Fillmore’s Bathtub for attributing the LDL&S quote to Mr. Disraeli. MFB was talking about global warming denial, a cesspool of lies and statistics. Pictures are from The Library of Congress. . Pictures of Mark Twain were recently posted.




6 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Morgan K Freeberg said, on August 5, 2010 at 1:50 pm

    Great post.

    One of my favorite current lies-with-statistics is this often repeated one about black people in the Tea Party movement, being one percent or less. I remember a few months ago it was “no black people in the Tea Party movement” or “nothing but white people in the TPM”…this might be something worth mentioning, suspect the absolute statements first. It’s really hard to find one that’s true.

    Also, somewhere there is a witticism floating around about a congressman who became highly indignant when he learned half the households in the country make less than the median income level.

    Incidentally, regarding “non-Hispanic blacks” in the TPM, six percent seems to be among the most reliable measurements…quite a far cry from what is being popularly uttered & carelessly repeated.

    • chamblee54 said, on August 5, 2010 at 1:54 pm

      Miss Teen Age South Carolina gave the correct answer.

  2. Lies And War « Chamblee54 said, on August 24, 2010 at 4:05 pm

    [...] Could treaties be another category of Lie? A few weeks ago this facility put up a post about the lies/damnlies/statistics trinity. (This blog is less squeamish now about cusswords.) The original quote was attributed to Benjamin [...]

  3. [...] In a recent survey, 78.7% percent of the respondents agree

  4. Statistical Lies « Chamblee54 said, on August 4, 2012 at 6:25 pm

    This is a repost. [...]

  5. Lies Darn Lies Statistics | Chamblee54 said, on August 1, 2013 at 7:58 am

    […] for Japanese Amercans during World War II. Pictures of Mark Twain were recently posted. This is a repeat […]


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 214 other followers

%d bloggers like this: