Chamblee54

Wednesday Morning Consultants

Posted in Library of Congress, Politics by chamblee54 on May 23, 2017


Wednesday morning consultants have been buzzing since last November. There are lots of opinions about why Hillary lost to Donnie. Today’s text will take a look at the numbers. With 270 electoral votes needed to win, Donald Trump (DJT) got 306, and Hillary Clinon (HRC) got 232. Gary Johnson (GEJ) and Jill Stein (JES) also were on the ballot.

One commonly heard excuse for this tragedy is racism. The repubs are racist, and anyone who voted for them is racist. This trope ignores the fact that essentially the same voting population elected a dark skinned man in 2008 and 2012. Did you ever hear anyone say “If you vote for Mitt Romney (WMR) you are a racist?” Maybe the demoze could have focused on the numerous ethical shortcomings of DJT, rather than scream racist.

Today we will look at five states. Four went Republican in 2016, after going Democrat in 2013. The fifth, Wisconsin, went Republican both times. The states are Florida (29), Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10). These five states had a total of 93 votes. Here are the links for the data used: fl2016, fl2012, mi2016, mi 2012, oh2016, oh2012, pa2016, pa2012, wi 2016, wi 2012.

Florida saw DJT won by 130,770, in a state won by BHO by 75,189. Both demoze and repubs saw increases in 2016 over 2012, with DJT getting 454,434 more votes than WMR. GEJ/JES also had substantial increases. We don’t know how 270,026 votes won by GEJ/JES affected the overall total.
2016 Trump 4,616,515 Clinton 4,485,745 Johnson 206,007 Stein 64,019
2012 Romney 4,162,081 Obama 4,237,270 Johnson 44,681 Stein 8,933

Michigan was a shocker. Most pundits assumed it would go to HRC, who lost by 11,612. The demoze lost 293,718 votes, and the repubs gained 167,132. GEJ (who was not on the ballot in 2012) and JES gained 202,553. It is possible that more than 11k BHO voters became “racistized,” and voted for DJT.
2016 Trump 2,279,805 Clinton 2,268,193 Johnson 173,057 Stein 50,700
2012 Romney 2,112,673 Obama 2,561,911 Johnson not on ballot Stein 21,204

Ohio has been the strategic electoral prize for years. DJT won by 454,983 votes, after WMR lost by 103,481. With a margin of victory that large, the GEJ/JES increases don’t matter much. HRC focused Ohio in 2016, leading some to speculate that her campaign was so yukkky that the more voters saw of it, the more likely they were to vote against her.
2016 Trump 2,771,984 Clinton 2,317,001 Johnson 168,599 Stein 44,310
2012 Romney 2,593,779 Obama 2,697,260 Johnson 47,287 Stein 12,148

Pennsylvania got the attention of demo strategist Chuck Schumer. “For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.” In a state BHO won by 287,905 votes, HRC lost by 68,236. This might be due to the 123,097 vote increase by GEJ/JES, or the fact that BHO had 62,783 more votes than HRC.
2016 Trump 2,912,941 Clinton 2,844,705 Johnson 142,653 Stein 49,912
2012 Romney 2,619,583 Obama 2,907,488 Johnson 48,758 Stein 20,710

Wisconsin is the only state, examined in this post, that WMR won in 2012. In fact, DJT got 204,483 less votes than WMR. HRC got 26,536 less votes than BHO, while losing to DJT by 27,257. GEJ/JES gained 109,542 over 2012.
2016 Trump 1,409,467 Clinton 1,382,210 Johnson 106,442 Stein 30,980
2012 Romney 1,613,950 Obama 1,408,746 Johnson 20,279 Stein 7,601

Pictures are from The Library of Congress. Images include “Earl Carrol picking beauties for vanities, 1/23/25″ and “Washington Base Ball team 4/25/25.”

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